Statistical climate model downscaling for impact projections in the Midwest United States

نویسندگان

چکیده

For future climate projections to be useful they must actionable at the local level. In this study, we develop daily temperature and precipitation scenarios suitable for use in of drought, energy use, water crop production. We investigate magnitude changes air Midwest United States response three change scenarios. Results are used assess incidence extremes human comfort (using heat index) associated with anticipated region. self-organizing maps random forest based techniques generate realizations 279 weather stations a region centred on Illinois. determine that model performs best maximum minimum temperatures, while map precipitation. Using nine models from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5, downscaled values generated low, moderate, high greenhouse gas emissions historical periods. Based recent trends, focus our results scenario, show an average increase 4.3°C across 2071–2100 period. Precipitation decreases by up 15% southern half study region, similar percentage northern The regional environmental result 5.8° summer index, 48% number days likely produce extreme heat, decrease value standardized evapotranspiration index 1.9 (indicating increased drought) 2100.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Climatology

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0899-8418', '1097-0088']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7406